Evaluating 35-Year Vegetation Dynamics in Anambra State: An NDVI-Climate Correlation Analysis

This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation and its climatic drivers in Anambra State, Nigeria, from 1990 to 2025 using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis and long-term climate time series. Results reveal a progressive decline in vegetation health, with mean NDVI dropping from 0.451 in 1990 to ∼0.25 in 2005, representing a 44% loss of photosynthetic capacity. Spatial NDVI maps confirm dense vegetation cover in 1995, followed by fragmentation and expansion of degraded corridors by 2005. Although a modest recovery occurred between 2020 and 2025 (NDVI rising to ∼0.336), this was qualitative, reflecting a shift from dense forest to sparse shrubland and cropland. Climatic variability, erratic rainfall, warming temperatures, declining wind speed, and stabilized solar radiation modulated short-term NDVI fluctuations. However, Pearson correlation analysis revealed weak NDVI–climate coupling, with rainfall (r=0.15) and temperature (r≈0) showing negligible influence, highlighting anthropogenic drivers such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and sand mining as dominant causes of degradation. The findings underscore vegetation dynamics as a sensitive indicator of environmental instability and agricultural unsustainability. The observed resilience after 2020 offers opportunities for reforestation, agroforestry, and sustainable land-use planning to restore ecological balance and ensure long-term sustainability