Physics-Informed Transient Modeling of Methane Hydrate Transport Restrictions Using Petrobras 3W Offshore Well-Event Data

Methane-dominant gas hydrate formation can restrict offshore production lines, alter pressure response, and interrupt natural-gas transport. Laboratory studies have established that hydrate growth depends on kinetic driving force, mass transfer, heat transfer, and hydrodynamic conditions, whereas field-data sets usually contain pressure, temperature, and flow signatures without direct hydrate-inventory measurements. This study presents a physics-informed framework for evaluating hydrate restriction signatures in offshore well data by combining robust field signal scoring with a one-dimensional transient transport-restriction model. Petrobras 3W class 0 data were used to define normal-operation baselines, while all 13 usable real-well class 8 and class 9 hydrate cases were used for validation. The Hydrate Anomaly Index achieved median event-window F1 = 0.889, median recall = 1.000, and median false-alarm rate = 0.051. In prospective replay, using only preceding normal-operation data to set thresholds, the framework achieved a median F1 = 0.974 and median false-alarm rate = 0.011, with sustained alarms occurring before the final hydrate-event label in 11 of 13 cases. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis showed that the pressure-drop response was controlled mainly by flow velocity and geometry, while the outlet hydrate-fraction response was controlled mainly by apparent kinetic and deposition parameters. The framework does not estimate the exact hydrate mass or deposit morphology. Its value is a reproducible, field-evaluated pathway for connecting hydrate-growth concepts with operational restriction signatures in offshore natural-gas production systems.