Regional Repercussions of Transboundary Crises: A Geopolitical and Security Analysis of the Iran Crisis from the Perspective of Armenia

This study evaluates how Armenia, located in the South Caucasus, was influenced by a large-scale conflict in the Middle East and how it reshaped national security strategies in the process. Military developments in Iran have led to a significant shift in the regional balance of power and necessitated a re-evaluation of Armenia’s traditional security approach. The study theoretically assembles Regional Security Complex Theory with small states literature, elucidating both the structural boundaries of regional security dynamics and the strategic preferences of actors with capacity asymmetry. On the basis of qualitative research method, the study employs a single-case study design and uses document analysis as its primary data collection method. The findings demonstrate that Iran played a critical balancing role for Armenia prior to the intervention; nevertheless, the intervention weakened this role. This casus has led the Armenian government to establish novel security associations with Western and non-regional actors and has also led it to develop more flexible and pragmatic strategies with current threat sources. Consequently, the study contributes to the literature by presenting the capacity of a regional conflict to transform the security apprehensions and foreign policy orientations of states in neighboring security complexes.