Rebalancing a small state: Armenia's hedging between Russia and the European Union in the context of collective security crisis

In the context of a deepening regional security crisis and the transformation of international institutions, small states are forced to adjust their foreign policy strategies in an effort to reduce their level of strategic vulnerability. The subject of this research is the transformation of Armenia's foreign policy strategy in the context of the crisis of trust in traditional collective security mechanisms after 2020. Special attention is given to the phenomenon of hedging as a risk management strategy employed by a small state to minimize dependency on a single dominant ally while maintaining basic commitments. The study examines the consequences of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the response of the CSTO, and the role of the Russian Federation in regional security, as well as the institutionalization of alternative foreign policy anchors through cooperation with the European Union. The aim of the analysis is to identify causal relationships between the crisis of collective security and Armenia's adaptation, including the diversification of external relations, risk management, and the preservation of the small country's strategic resilience. The research employs qualitative case analysis of Armenia based on primary documents, public statements by political leaders, empirical data regarding events from 2020 to 2024, and a theoretical framework of the hedging concept. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive interpretation of Armenia's foreign policy behavior through the lens of a forced hedging strategy, rather than traditional reorientation or balancing. The article demonstrates that hedging manifests in the simultaneous distancing from an ineffective ally, the maintenance of formal membership in the CSTO, and the institutionalization of alternative cooperation with the EU. For the first time, three dimensions of hedging in practical application are presented: security measures, institutional development of alternative formats, and risk management through the diversification of external relations. The conclusions highlight the structural limitations of the strategy, related to the asymmetry of allied commitments, energy and military dependency on Russia, and the limited capabilities of the EU as a defense partner. The findings of the study confirm the reactive nature of Armenia's adaptation, outline scenario trajectories for the country's future foreign policy course, and contribute to the theory of small states' behavior in the context of a collapse of collective security.