Small state recalibration after systemic shock: Armenia’s post-2020 foreign policy transformation

This article examines Armenia’s post-2020 foreign policy transformation through the lens of small state foreign policy adaptation and bounded transformation. It argues that Armenia’s response to the Second Karabakh War reflects adaptive recalibration rather than full strategic realignment, shaped by the interaction of systemic shock, domestic institutional inertia, and leadership cognition. Using theory-guided process tracing, the study reconstructs a sequenced causal mechanism linking the 2020 war to institutional distancing from Russia, selective diversification in defense procurement and trade, and pragmatic normalisation initiatives toward Turkey and Azerbaijan. The findings demonstrate that Armenia diversified partnerships with the European Union, India, and the United Arab Emirates without fully replacing its primary security anchor, reflecting a pattern of partial decoupling and selective reconfiguration rather than complete realignment. The article clarifies the conditions under which small states recalibrate without fully realigning under asymmetric regional pressures.