Winning without war in Africa: the will to fight, strategic openness, and great power rivalry

This research assesses how “will to fight” impacts the ability of African nations to achieve strategic success during periods of increased competition between powerful nations (great powers) and increasing global and transnational threat. Unlike most studies on strategy which focus on the physical assets (material capacity), institutions (governance), and the support received from other nations (external assistance) a new study provides evidence that the will to fight of an African nation has a significant impact on its ability to sustain its deterrent capability, remain strategically open, and resist coercion. Using case studies of four regions (the Sahel, Mali, Cameroon, and the Horn of Africa) the study illustrates how a weak will to fight significantly increases the likelihood of a nation’s military collapsing; increasing reliance on foreign militaries and ultimately reducing the options available for a nation to make strategic decisions. Conversely, when there is a strong will to fight, even in extremely difficult circumstances a nation retains the ability to make strategic choices with respect to both its own military forces and those of other nations. This research contributes to the body of knowledge in military studies by identifying will to fight as a pre-conflict strategic resource that enhances a nation’s deterrence capabilities, the flexibility to align with other nations to meet a variety of strategic objectives, and a nation’s ability to win without engaging in war. The findings of the research provide direct recommendations for defense planners in the United States and other aligned nations regarding their assessment of and investment in will to fight as a critical component of both the development of security partnerships and the design of regional engagement strategies.