A Preoperative Scoring System to Predict Carcinoma in Patients with Gallbladder Polyps

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INTRODUCTION: A preoperative scoring system to predict carcinoma in patients with gallbladder polyps (GBPs). METHODS: Preoperative parameters of patients with GBPs who underwent cholecystectomies were used to construct a scoring system to ascertain the risk of malignancy (reference group). The scoring system developed from this approach was applied to the validation group. RESULTS: In the reference group, 11.5% of patients had carcinomas, in whom the median age was 68 years and the polyp size was 16.9 mm. According to the univariate analysis, the significant factors for carcinoma were age ≥65 years, the presence of gallstones, polyp size ≥13 mm, solitary polyp, and sessile polyp. Age ≥65 years and polyp size ≥13 mm were significant factors according to the multivariate analysis. From these results, we developed a preoperative scoring system to predict carcinoma. The patients were divided into 1 of 2 groups: low-risk and high-risk and their malignancy rates were 4.1 and 61.1% respectively (p < 0.001). In the validation group, the malignancy rate was higher for those in the high-risk group (p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed preoperative scoring system based on simple clinical variables appears to be useful for predicting malignancy in patients with GBPs.