Climate-induced drought and its impact on economic pressures and psychological distress among farmers in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Climate-induced drought poses significant threats to agricultural productivity and farmer well-being, particularly in regions highly dependent on agriculture. This study investigates the impacts of climate variability and associated economic pressures on psychological distress among farmers in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess perceptions of climate trends, adaptation strategies, economic burdens, and mental health. Long-term climate data (1990–2023) on rainfall and temperature were analyzed to validate farmer-reported observations, revealing a marked decline in winter precipitation. Psychological assessments using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale ( DASS-21 ) indicated moderate distress levels (stress mean = 21.16; anxiety mean = 20.84; depression mean = 19.77). Correlation analyses showed strong associations between declining rainfall ( r = 0.61), frequent crop failures ( r = 0.53), and rising operational costs ( r = 0.37). SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis indicated that precipitation decline (SHAP value = 0.61) and crop failure (SHAP value = 0.53) were among the variables most strongly associated with higher model-predicted psychological stress, whereas larger landholdings were associated with lower predicted stress (SHAP value = −0.27). High irrigation costs (34,000 PKR ha −1 ) and land-preparation expenses (28,500 PKR ha −1 ) were reported alongside greater economic vulnerability. Farmers reported adopting drought-resistant crops (32.3%), reducing cultivated area (28.3%), borrowing funds (22.0%), and relying on spiritual coping (17.3%). Random Forest regression ranked income diversification (relative importance = 0.22), irrigation costs (0.18), and environmental threat indicators (0.14) as comparatively important predictors of psychological stress. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated policies on economic support, climate adaptation, and mental health to enhance resilience in drought-prone farming communities.