Belarusian diaspora political mobilisation in times of polycrisis

This article examines the political mobilisation of the Belarusian diaspora in Poland in the context of the overlapping crises that have reshaped Belarusian society since 2020. In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election widely regarded by international observers as neither free nor fair, and the mass political repression that followed, Belarusians residing abroad began to assume roles traditionally associated with a domestic democratic opposition. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 and the complicity of the Belarusian regime in this aggression resulted in a further transformation of the diaspora’s orientation, towards a firm position condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. A third crisis, which began in 2023, is characterised by escalating transnational repression by the Belarusian regime, aimed at limiting the political activism of the diaspora. Drawing on a series of in-depth interviews, document analysis, and participant observation conducted between 2020 and 2025, the study conceptualises the Belarusian diaspora as a transnational social movement and analyses its evolving political strategies through the lenses of mobilisation theory and democratisation scholarship complemented by insights from conflict transformation approach. This perspective allows to examine how successive and overlapping crises transform the actors, relations, and spaces through which political contestation between the Belarusian regime and democratic opposition unfolds. In particular, the displacement of civil society and democratic opposition combined with the extension of authoritarian repression across borders, has increasingly transnationalised this political contestation. The paper contends that within the context of a polycrisis, wherein political repression, war, and transnational authoritarianism intersect, the Belarusian diaspora performs functions associated with civil society and democratic opposition in exile and has come to the fore as a pivotal, yet precarious political actor facing growing challenges to its cohesion, resources, and long-term sustainability.