Global warming level of emergence of mean and extreme climate change over South Korea based on high-resolution climate change scenarios

This study investigates changes in mean and extreme climate indices and their emergence over South Korea using 500-m-resolution climate change scenarios based on the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Climate responses were analyzed at five global warming levels (GWLs; 1.5–5.0°C), and the Global Warming Level of Emergence (GWLoE) was evaluated to determine when climate change signals exceed natural variability. Mean temperature (TA) increases consistently with warming, reaching +4.8°C at GWL 5.0, whereas precipitation (PR) exhibits greater variability, ranging from -1.1% at GWL 1.5 to +15.5% at GWL 5.0. Extreme indices respond more strongly than mean climate indices, with TXx increasing by +6.2°C and Rx1D by +30.2% at GWL 5.0. The GWLoE analysis shows that TA emerges rapidly, with emergence across 95.1% of South Korea at GWL 2.0 and nearly all areas at GWL 3.0. In contrast, the emergence of TXx is delayed, while PR rarely emerges even at GWL 5.0 because of strong natural variability. Rx1D emerges earlier than PR, particularly in southern coastal and island regions. These results indicate that temperature-related risks become detectable at low warming levels, whereas hydrological risks may intensify through extreme precipitation before changes in mean precipitation clearly emerge. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating emergence-based metrics into climate risk assessment and adaptation planning.