Socioeconomic trade-offs in Portuguese sardine recovery (2006–2023)

This study evaluates socioeconomic impacts during Portuguese sardine recovery (2006–2023) under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Using segmented interrupted-time-series models with breakpoints at 2011 and 2016, it estimates phase-specific changes in coastal fleet capacity, employment, prices, landings value, and productivity. Biological rebuilding was accompanied by uneven distributional outcomes: employment in the under-12-m purse-seine segment fell by 62%, whereas the 12–24-m segment did not contract and increased its share of enrolled fishers. Scarcity premia raised real ex-vessel prices during restrictions, but real landings value declined and only partially recovered after 2016. Productivity improved in the coastal fleet after reopening, consistent with structural adjustment under an aggregate-cap regime. These results support equity-aware implementation of CFP Article 17 and targeted transition support for vulnerable segments.