Hypertension disease natural history and healthcare utilization when treatment guidelines do not account for race

Objective To estimate the impact of removing race-adjusted antihypertensive treatment recommendations for Black adults on health outcomes, healthcare utilization, and racial/ethnic disparities. Materials and methods A discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of hypertension natural history and health system utilization was developed to simulate lifetime trajectories among 100,000 non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic white 40-year-old adults. We evaluated the effect of removing race-adjusted antihypertensive treatment recommendations under two scenarios: one assuming racial heterogeneity in treatment effectiveness, reflecting evidence behind prior race-specific guidelines, and the other assuming no racial heterogeneity. Our main outcomes included life expectancy, cumulative incidence and duration of hypertension, and blood pressure control with antihypertensive treatment. Results Under assumptions of heterogeneous treatment effectiveness by race, guidelines without race adjustment decreased life expectancy among non-Hispanic Black adults by 0.4 years, increasing the life expectancy gap with non-Hispanic white adults from 4.1 to 4.5 years. Hypertension control among non-Hispanic Black adults also worsened. Years with uncontrolled hypertension increased by 0.8 years, widening the disparity with non-Hispanic white adults from 1.7 to 2.5 years. Assuming no racial heterogeneity, these effects were diminished: life expectancy decreased by 0.1 years and years with uncontrolled hypertension increased by 0.2 years, less than one-half and one-quarter of the effects observed under assumptions of heterogeneous treatment effectiveness by race. Discussion The potential effects of removing race-adjusted antihypertensive treatment guidelines depended on assumptions of racial heterogeneity in treatment effectiveness. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of understanding drivers of previously observed racial differences when considering modifying antihypertensive treatment guidelines.