A preliminary framework to model wing polyphenism in aphids threatened by predators

In this study, we integrate population theory with experimental data from the literature and from our laboratory experiments to develop a preliminary predator–prey model. This model investigates wing polyphenism in aphids exposed to predators. We propose a system of three ordinary differential equations to simulate interactions among apterous aphids, alate aphids, and their predators. Although essential for biocontrol, predators can induce wing development, enabling aphids to disperse to previously uninfested plantations. Building on the work of Sentis et al. (2019), who found that ladybug presence increases winged offspring production (an effect dependent on the host plant) in Acyrthosiphon pisum , with stronger responses in alfalfa-specialized lineages than in clover-specialized ones, we investigated how host plant type shapes aphid responses using an analogous system with Myzus persicae on broccoli (a favorable host, akin to alfalfa for a strong response) and basil (a repellent host, akin to clover for a weak response). Our model results indicate that predator presence promotes alate formation, a response modulated by the predator’s attack rate, its conversion efficiency, and host plant effects, as plants vary in their attractiveness to different aphid morphs.