Perceived Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Risks in the Urban Centers of Zio Prefecture, Togo

Climate change and rapid urban expansion are increasing populations’ exposure to climate risks, particularly in secondary cities of West Africa. An analysis of local perceptions of these risks is therefore essential for improving the understanding of urban vulnerability and strengthening local adaptation and resilience strategies. This study analyzes the perceptions of exposure and sensitivity to climate risks in nine urban centers of the Zio prefecture (Togo), as well as their determinants. A mixed-method approach was conducted with 423 households, combining quantitative surveys and statistical analyses, including principal component analysis (PCA) and chi-square (χ2) tests. The results show that extreme heat (80.6%) and drought (66.7%) are the most perceived hazards, with significant spatial variations: drought is more frequently cited in small rural localities (90.2%), while floods and storms predominate in peri-urban areas. Women (up to 89.5%) and residents of risk-prone areas are identified as the most vulnerable groups. Factor analysis reveals two dimensions structuring perceptions: a chronic and economic component (income loss, migration, drought) and an acute hydrometeorological component (river flooding, human losses, storms). Remote rural municipalities (Zio 4) exhibit higher perceptions of chronic risks, while the peri-urban area (Zio 2) combines both chronic and acute risks. Housing and roads are perceived as the most vulnerable infrastructures. External support remained limited, with 67.6% of households reporting none; government assistance was the leading source overall (14.7%), while non-governmental organizations NGOs predominated in large settlements (30.0%). These findings confirm the intra-territorial heterogeneity of perceptions and highlight the need for differentiated, gender-sensitive adaptation policies that strengthen institutional alert and assistance mechanisms.