From Temporary Programme to European Infrastructure? Funding Dependence, Institutional Resilience and the Future of European University Alliances

The European Universities Initiative seeks long-term structural cooperation through a funding model that remains largely project-based. This article examines when temporary supranational funding can generate resilient transnational capacity and how long, at what level and for which functions Erasmus+ should support European University Alliances. It combines documentary policy analysis, legal-status mapping of 65 funded alliances and eight Seal of Excellence alliances, and four policy scenarios. Withdrawal scenarios apply primarily to funded alliances; Seal holders are treated as boundary cases because they operate without dedicated EUI grants. Official evidence indicates growth in joint provision, mobility, governance, regional engagement and policy experimentation, but evaluation remains output-orientated and largely reflects periods of active funding. Twenty-one alliances have verified legal-personality pathways, concentrated in the earliest cohorts, indicating formalization rather than financial resilience. Scenario analysis suggests that abrupt withdrawal would produce differentiated outcomes shaped by resource capacity and perceived alliance value; central teams, shared platforms and alliance services are more exposed than embedded programmes and academic networks. Indefinite undifferentiated funding could reinforce project dependence. The article proposes an eight-to-ten-year staged transition, exceptionally extendable to twelve years, combining predictable EU support, capacity-sensitive co-financing, full-cost transparency and targeted funding for European public goods.