Pork Price Fluctuations in China: Epidemic Associations, Storage and Release Operations, and Forecasting

Pork remains a cornerstone of many food systems, and fluctuations in its price are a critical concern for the economic sustainability of agricultural supply chains. This study connects epidemic associations, reserve-operation case studies and forecasting to examine pork price fluctuations in China using average retail prices in 36 major cities. Linear and nonlinear regressions examine epidemic conditions, while reserve cases compare price changes and pig-to-grain ratios. Chronological out-of-sample forecasts compare seven models at one-, three- and six-week horizons, with ordinary least squares as the principal benchmark. Direct-price and cumulative-change approaches are evaluated on the original price scale. The epidemic index exhibits a nonlinear association in the five-knot specification with year controls despite limited linear explanatory power. Reserve episodes show differing adjustment paths, and higher pig-to-grain ratios are not consistently accompanied by lower dispersion. Univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) achieves the lowest root mean squared error in most comparisons, while market indicators improve selected forecasts. Support vector regression using price history and slaughter profits under the cumulative-change approach yields the lowest three-week errors among the evaluated main-sample configurations. These findings inform market monitoring and the selection of forecasting indicators and models.