The Coming Wave of PV Waste in China: A Systematic Assessment of Recycling Potentials toward a Circular Economy

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is recognized as one of the effective pathways to achieving carbon neutrality, receiving extensive advocacy and the most widespread implementation in China. However, the expansion of the photovoltaic industry has created significant challenges for waste management. Current research on the comprehensive resource potential and sustainable benefits of decommissioned PV systems in China remains insufficient, particularly when climate commitments and PV industry development stages are considered together. Accordingly, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess the multidimensional sustainable benefits of decommissioned PV recycling across integrated scenario combinations. The results indicate that (1) by 2050, cumulative decommissioned PV will range from 1164.2 to 1402.7 GW, generating 6.43 × 107–7.86 × 107 MT of resource potential. (2) An estimated 93.83% of the PV waste may consist of PV modules, 6.04% may be inverters, and 0.13% may be cables and brackets. Among these, glass (61%), aluminum (16%), and steel (14%) are projected to constitute the largest proportions. (3) Recycling decommissioned PV could generate cumulative net economic benefits ranging from CNY 903.49 to 1088.60 billion (USD 140.40 to 161.99 billion), save between 2.19 × 108 and 3.81 × 108 GJ of primary energy, reduce carbon emissions by 111.44 to 142.05 million tons of CO2-eq, decrease wastewater generation by 2.52 to 3.43 billion m3, and prevent the accumulation of solid waste by 47.27 to 56.95 billion tons. This study offers valuable insights into photovoltaic waste management and recycling in China, as well as guides other countries facing challenges in the disposal of decommissioned PV systems.