Current State of Estimation Thinking in Educational Leadership Research: A Review of Research Published Between 2005 and 2024

The purpose of this article was to evaluate the extent to which research in educational leadership and management reflects the core principles of estimation thinking – a statistical thinking that prioritizes estimation over binary hypothesis testing and emphasizes effect sizes, precision, uncertainty, and the practical implications of research findings. Estimation thinking encourages more nuanced, context-sensitive interpretations of evidence that support informed decision-making and cultivate educational leaders’ critical judgment and habits of reflective thinking. Using a 12-item analytic rubric developed through (a) a comprehensive literature review, (b) iterative discussion and feedback, and (c) multiple rounds of pilot testing, reflection, and revision, we systematically analyzed 516 quantitative studies published between 2005 and 2024 in three major refereed educational leadership journals to assess their alignment with estimation thinking. We found that despite some progress over the years, dichotomous thinking continues to dominate research in the field. Three of the 12 criteria were satisfied by fewer than 10% of the studies, and another four by only 10% to 30%. Only two criteria, reporting sample sizes and descriptive statistics, were fulfilled by over 90% of the reviewed studies. There were also notable variations across journals and methods in the prevalence of estimation thinking. We highlight the considerable room for improvement in conducting, reporting, and interpreting quantitative research and elucidate the importance of estimation thinking for research and practice in educational leadership. We conclude by calling on journal editors, researchers, and educators to shift the scientific culture toward estimation thinking.