Prospective Economics of Small Modular Reactors in Vietnam: A Time-Indexed Techno-Economic Assessment

Vietnam’s growing electricity demand, net-zero commitment, and renewed consideration of nuclear power motivate a transparent assessment of small modular reactor (SMR) economics. This study applies a harmonized plant-level levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) framework, based primarily on the Viet Nam Technology Catalogue for Power Generation 2026 (DEPP3), to compare SMRs with large pressurized water reactors, coal, LNG combined-cycle generation, solar PV, and onshore and offshore wind in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The analysis combines cost decomposition, construction-financing profile tests, common-rate and differentiated financing cases, normalized sensitivity analysis, multidimensional scenarios, and carbon-price break-even analysis. Under the common 10% real financing-rate assumption, the calculated SMR LCOE changes from 170.3 USD/MWh in 2030 to 103.1 USD/MWh in 2050; this is a DEPP3-conditioned pathway, not an independently forecast cost decline. The 2030 value is 170.3 USD/MWh under the INL S-curve financing formulation, 171.7 USD/MWh under uniform annual mid-year spending, and 233.1 USD/MWh in a bounding prepaid case. Normalized local sensitivities identify the financing rate, capacity factor, overnight capital cost, and construction duration as the largest responses. These plant-level results support conditional technology screening and staged evidence development rather than an immediate deployment or exclusion decision for Vietnam.