The role of confidence on long-term conceptual change in biology among secondary school students

This study examines how confidence relates to conceptual change and its sustainability in secondary students’ learning of photosynthesis and cellular respiration. Seventy-three Grade 9 students completed a concept test with confidence ratings before, immediately after, and three months after a four-lesson intervention in a botanical garden. Confidence was analysed both as an absolute rating and as a calibration index combining confidence with answer accuracy. The results showed that pre-test confidence alone did not predict conceptual change. By contrast, calibration differentiated three profiles – underconfident, realistically confident, and overconfident – with distinct trajectories. Overconfident students showed little improvement during the intervention. Underconfident students improved the most from pre-test to posttest but regressed at delayed posttest. Realistically confident students improved during the intervention and continued to improve afterwards, showing the most sustainable conceptual change. The findings suggest that, in complex conceptual learning, confidence matters less as a general trait than as a precisely calibrated assessment directly tied to evolving conceptual understanding.