Does performance on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire-3 assessment at age 2 estimate the effect on the Early Years Foundation Stage at age 5? A longitudinal observational study using routine data

Introduction Improving the proportion of children achieving a good level of development (GLD) on the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) aged 5 became a national priority in England in 2025. This study examined whether performance on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire-3 (ASQ-3) aged 2 can estimate the effect on the EYFSP. Methods A longitudinal dataset was created using linked Connected West-Yorkshire (Bradford) data. Multiple regression analyses estimated the effect of ASQ-3 on EYFSP, and descriptive analyses explored the overlap between GLDs. Results Of 98 851 children born between September 2013 and May 2023, 47 046 (48%) had an ASQ-3 record, 9021 had an EYFSP record (only available for academic year 2018–2019), and 6021 had linked ASQ-3 and EYFSP data. Children who achieved a GLD on the ASQ-3 had over three times the odds of achieving a GLD on the EYFSP (OR 3.18, 95% CI 2.70 to 3.75). Boys, those living in areas of deprivation, and those from white other backgrounds were less likely to achieve an EYFSP GLD. Conclusion This study highlights the potential value of using ASQ-3 to identify children who are not likely to achieve a GLD on the EYFSP. Further research is required to confirm these findings.