An Integrated Identification–Assessment–Prevention (IAP) Framework for Explosion Risk Management in Aluminum Processing

Explosion accidents in aluminum processing pose a significant safety concern in China. Accurate hazard identification, explosion probabilistic assessment, and effective prevention are crucial for production safety. This study proposes an Identification–Assessment–Prevention (IAP) framework that integrates evidence-based hazard identification across multiple processes and factor types, Fault Tree–Bayesian Network (FT–BN) probabilistic assessment, basic-event importance analysis, causal-chain analysis, and propagation-node analysis. Compared with conventional FT–BN models, the proposed framework unifies the three methodological elements of identification, assessment, and prevention into an analytical system, broadens the evidence base and scope for hazard identification, and links key basic events (BEs), critical causation chains, and core propagation nodes to prevention measures. The framework was applied to aluminum processing, identifying 65 hazards across three processing stages and five factor types, and determining high-accident-probability processes and scenarios, key BEs, critical causation chains, and core propagation nodes. Based on these results, prioritized prevention measures were proposed. The proposed framework can assist decision-makers in improving safety management in aluminum processing.