China’s dynamic layouts of carbon capture utilization and storage

Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) is pivotal to China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060. A national-scale dynamic source-sink matching optimization model is developed to explore CCUS deployment across 31 provinces and 16 sedimentary basins under eight integrated scenarios, which combine two emission pathways (Announced Pledges Scenario, APS; Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS) with four storage growth pathways (CS1–CS4). The model quantifies CO₂ capture from coal-fired power, gas-fired power, steel, cement, and chemical plants, and evaluates storage via enhanced oil recovery (EOR), enhanced gas recovery (EGR), enhanced water recovery (EWR), and enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM). Under the CE1-CS1 pathway cumulative CO₂ capture and storage reaches 11.1 billion tons by 2060 with the Ordos Basin storing 4.24 billion tons. Coal-fired power plants dominate capture contributions, while EWR and EGR emerge as predominant utilization modes. In STEPS, the CE2-CS1 pathway featuring slower emission decline but sustained storage growth yields a cumulative capture of 32.59 billion tons. Hebei, Shanxi, and Shandong collectively account for 26.5% of national capture, with the Ordos Basin storing 8.29 billion tons. Here, EGR and ECBM become the dominant storage strategies, reflecting higher residual emission and extended capture timelines. Economic analysis shows that the CE1-CS1 pathway generates benefits totaling 4849.5 billion yuan. Proximity between major emitters (e.g., Shanxi) and large storage basins (e.g., Ordos) is critical for cost-effective transport. The study highlights that coal-fired power remains the primary CCUS target, while EOR/EGR offer high-value utilization opportunities. These findings provide a data-driven framework for scaling CCUS in China and insights for global carbon management.