More schooling, less growth? Evidence from North Africa: a panel data analysis

This article examines the effects of human capital, proxied by the average number of years of schooling, on economic growth in four North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia) over the period 1990–2022. Building on the augmented Solow framework of Mankiw, Romer, and Weil [1992. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (2): 407–437.] and its panel data extension by Islam [1995. “Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (4): 1127–1170.], the empirical analysis is conducted using Robust Weighted Least Squares (RWLS), complemented by a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) robustness check addressing potential endogeneity concerns. The results indicate a negative conditional association between average years of schooling and economic growth. This pattern suggests that the regional emphasis on the quantitative expansion of education, in the absence of parallel improvements in education quality and supportive structural conditions, has yielded limited economic returns. The findings call for educational reforms that move beyond schooling duration to prioritise teaching quality, learning outcomes, and stronger articulation with labour market needs, thereby fostering sustainable economic growth in North Africa, in alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 4 and SDG 10).