Spatiotemporal dynamics of lumpy skin disease across livestock production systems in Tanzania

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an emerging transboundary viral disease of cattle with major economic impacts, particularly in endemic countries. However, limited information exists on how livestock production systems, seasonal variability, temporal trends, and spatial patterns influence disease dynamics. This study investigated the temporal and spatial distribution of LSD across livestock production systems in Tanzania using outbreak data collected between 2017 and 2024. Descriptive analyses were conducted in R, while spatial clustering was assessed using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. Smallholder dairy systems recorded the highest numbers of outbreaks, cases, and deaths, followed by agropastoral systems, whereas pastoral systems showed the lowest disease burden, despite larger cattle populations. Non-parametric analysis revealed no significant differences in LSD cases among production systems during dry season, but significant differences were observed in wet season, with higher cases in smallholder dairy systems compared to pastoral systems. Temporal analysis showed a marked increase in cases from 2020, peaking in 2021 with resurgence in 2024. Monthly trends indicated higher cases during wet months (February–May), coinciding with the expected peak in vector activity in smallholder dairy and agropastoral systems, while cases peaked in June among pastoral systems. Spatial analysis revealed significant hotspot corridors in agropastoral areas across southern highlands, central, and northern Tanzania, localized hotspots in smallholder dairy systems in southern highlands and central Tanzania, and weak, scattered clustering in pastoral systems. These findings indicate LSD dynamics are strongly influenced by livestock production systems, with seasonal and spatial factors amplifying transmission, highlighting targeted, system-specific control strategies in Tanzania.