Linking drought variability to local preparedness: An SPI and drought cycle management analysis in Tanzania

Drought remains a major threat to agricultural livelihoods in semi-arid regions. Most assessments analyze drought severity and preparedness separately, limiting a comprehensive understanding of response capacity. This study examines drought dynamics by using an integrated approach that combines the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Drought Cycle Management (DCM), and the Community Drought Preparedness Index (CDPI). Monthly rainfall data from 1985 to 2024 were used to characterize short- and long-term droughts with SPI-3 and SPI-12. A survey of 406 households provided data to compute a CDPI by aggregating the main components of CDM. The SPI-3 results exhibited more short-term drought variability, while SPI-12 identified less frequent but longer-lasting and more severe droughts. The mean CDPI score of 44.12 indicates moderate community preparedness, with training and access to early-warning information as key preparedness factors. The findings highlight the need for integrated drought management strategies to enhance drought resilience in semi-arid communities.