Taiwan and Ukraine: reassessing the analogy through realist and constructivist lenses

Since the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, scholars and political commentators have drawn parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan. Yet no comparable conflict has occurred in the Taiwan Strait. This article applies a realist lens of power transition and a constructivist lens of legitimacy and identity to reassess the analogy. It asks why Russia has used force against Ukraine while the PRC has not, and whether the conditions that shaped Ukraine’s wartime experience could be reproduced in the Taiwan case. Examining these questions through domestic political contexts, the strategic calculus underlying U.S.-led external involvement, and the role of national identity, this article argues that the Ukraine–Taiwan analogy is fundamentally flawed.