The Adolescent Attendance Gap: A Survey-Weighted Analysis of School Attendance among Children in Kogi State, Nigeria (MICS6, 2021)

Nigeria has one of the largest populations of out-of-school children in the world, but subnational, state-level evidence on the correlates of school attendance remains limited, particularly for north-central states such as Kogi. This study estimated the prevalence of current school attendance among children aged 5–17 years in Kogi State and examined its sociodemographic correlates using the 2021 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS6). The analytic sample comprised 583 children nested within 49 primary sampling units (PSUs). A null random-intercept model assessing PSU-level clustering was singular (variance not estimable); survey-weighted logistic regression accounting for stratification, clustering, and weights was therefore the primary analysis, with survey-weighted Poisson regression yielding adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) as a sensitivity analysis. The weighted prevalence of current school attendance was 95.0% (95% CI: 92.0–96.9%), declining from 98.8% among children aged 5–9 years to 88.2% among adolescents aged 15–17 years. In adjusted models, no covariate was statistically significant at the 5% level, including female sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.25–2.81), age 12–17 years (AOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.07–1.34), and rural residence (AOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.22–2.35); APRs were consistent. The wide confidence intervals are compatible with both negligible and substantial associations, so these results do not demonstrate an absence of sociodemographic differences; only 28 children were not attending school, limiting statistical power. Attendance was high overall, with the largest shortfall among older adolescents; larger or pooled samples are needed to characterise its correlates, and retention measures for older adolescents merit consideration and evaluation.