Risk-Adaptive Hierarchical Coordination for Supply Security in Renewable-Dominated Multi-Area Power Systems

Against the background of high penetration of renewable energy, multi-area power systems are exposed to risks arising from renewable generation variability, load forecast deviations, and multi-factor supply–demand disturbances under extreme conditions. To enhance power supply security and interregional mutual-support capability, this paper proposes a risk-adaptive hierarchical coordination method for power supply assurance and develops a progressive coordination framework described as “local self-balancing–intra-regional flexibility sharing–wide-area emergency support.” Based on the typical forecast values of load, wind power, and photovoltaic generation, stochastic source–load scenarios are generated using the Monte Carlo method, and CVaR is employed to quantify the tail risk of power supply. On this basis, the coordination scope is dynamically determined and cross-regional resources are optimally allocated. Case studies on a four-area interconnected system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively reduce operating costs and renewable energy curtailment. Under extreme scenarios, it significantly decreases the amount of energy not served and mitigates regional supply–demand deficits through the deployment of wide-area resources, thereby improving both power supply reliability and operational economy.