Spillover effects of a far-left populist's victory: Revisiting the 1998 Venezuela election

Can far-left populists' electoral success change public opinion in other countries? If so, what attitudes are affected? While previous research shows that far-right populist's victories abroad can influence citizens' immigration and democratic attitudes, little is known about the spillover effects of far-left populist's victory. My research addresses this ideological imbalance by examining this topic. I argue that this foreign election outcome raises salience and reveals mass support for the political attributes of far-left populists. In turn, this can prompt citizens to update their economic and democratic attitudes through genuine preference updating and/or perceived norm change. Moreover, the direction of such attitudinal changes can be moderated by citizens' ideology. To test these expectations, I study the impacts of Chávez's 1998 presidential victory in Spain and Guatemala, where the Latinobarómetro survey was fielded amid this election. My analysis demonstrates that citizens become more pro-state intervention and more supportive of democracy after this far-left populist's victory. Additionally, I explore which ideological subgroups are more likely to experience these attitudinal changes. The heterogeneity analysis suggests the changes in economic attitudes and preference for democracy are concentrated among right-wing citizens in Guatemala. I discuss how these findings enrich the literature on autocratization, far-left politics, and transnational learning.