Life cycle carbon emission accounting and emission reduction potential assessment of container and domestic glass industry in China

The container and domestic glass (CDG) industry is one of the most energy-intensive sectors in China. To analyse the life cycle carbon emissions and the potential for carbon reduction of the CDG industry in China, we developed a carbon-emission accounting model based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and conducted an empirical analysis using 2023 as the baseline year. The study evaluates the carbon mitigation potential by adjusting four key variables: applying low-carbon technologies, optimising raw-material composition, modifying the fuel mix, and improving transportation methods. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the critical factors influencing life cycle carbon emissions. Results indicate that the total life cycle CO2 emissions of the CDG industry in 2023 were estimated at 24.0 million tonnes, with raw material sourcing and manufacturing processes contributing over 98% of total emissions. Among all emission sources, fossil fuel consumption and raw material composition are identified as the primary targets for emission reduction. By 2030, the carbon reduction potential of the CDG industry is estimated at 22.85% through increased cullet use, 20.48% through adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies, 10.65% from optimising the fuel mix, and 0.61% through improvements in transportation methods. Fossil fuel combustion has the most significant impact on life cycle CO2 emissions, followed by changes in cullet usage and the carbon intensity of electricity. These prioritised pathways provide actionable guidance for aligning China's CDG industry with the national dual-carbon strategy.