Global value chain position, supply chain security, and total factor productivity: evidence from china's manufacturing

This study examines whether a higher relative position of China’s manufacturing industries in global value chains is associated with higher total factor productivity (TFP), and through which industrial and supply chain security channels this relationship operates. Using OECD TiVA measures and panel data for 15 manufacturing industries during 2001–2020, we estimate two-way fixed-effects models and address endogeneity with instrumental variables and robustness cheques. A higher GVC position is associated with significantly higher TFP. The effect operates mainly through greater intermediate-input self-sufficiency, stronger autonomy in core technologies, and improved energy efficiency. Gains are larger in non-export-oriented and knowledge-technology intensive industries, highlighting the role of GVC position improvement in strengthening industrial resilience.