Remote Multispectral Sensing for Spatial and Temporal Analysis and Location Selection of a Reservoir on the Zhabay River, Kazakhstan

This study aims to develop a methodology for identifying potential reservoir sites along the Zhylandy River, a right-bank tributary of the Zhabay River, using multispectral remote sensing data. The relevance of this work stems from the need to adapt Kazakhstan’s water resource management system to changing climate conditions and to ensure sustainable development of the region. To reconstruct the dynamics of water-surface extent across the entire river basin, a time series of Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 Level-2 scenes acquired between 2020 and 2026 was processed. The resulting water occurrence frequency maps were integrated with digital elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) within a multi-criteria GIS analysis to assess site suitability. The key criteria included a stable water occurrence frequency, suitable valley geometry (slope < 5°), and minimal conflicts with existing land use. Three promising sites were identified: Site 105 near the village of Novoselovka (potential storage volume ~75.6 million m3), Site 104 in the upper reaches of the Zhylandy River (~30.01 million m3), and Site 1A near Khlebnoye (~52.4 million m3). Validation against high-resolution imagery showed an overall accuracy of 87%, producer’s accuracy of 85.2%, user’s accuracy of 89.0%, Kappa of 0.74, and F1-score of 0.87. The proposed methodology provides a scientifically grounded basis for sustainable water resource management and flood risk reduction in data-scarce basins, contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals under climate change.