A Place-Based Methodology to Support Sustainable Mobility Transitions in Italian Cities

The transition from prevailing car-dependent urban mobility patterns to multimodal systems prioritising active travel and public transport is widely recognised as a key lever for achieving more sustainable cities and as essential for meeting EU mid-century targets on environmental protection, carbon neutrality, and road safety. The challenge is particularly acute in Italy, which has the highest motorisation rate in Europe, while urban modal shares remain heavily skewed towards private car use, even for short trips. This issue is addressed through a nationally funded research project that develops a methodological framework to support public policy, spatial and transport planning, and funding allocation. The project adopts a place-based approach, employing GIS-based analyses to define territorial indicators that capture local propensities for implementing push and pull measures aimed at reducing car dependency, in line with the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework. By integrating spatial data with demographic and transport demand indicators, a standardised procedure is proposed to construct mobility scenarios that (i) identify context-sensitive optimal modal shares prioritising sustainable modes, and (ii) quantify the “mobility gap” between current and optimal conditions, thereby informing policy and planning decisions. Tested across four heterogeneous urban areas, the methodology is designed to be replicable at the national scale and adaptable to other contexts.