A geospatial and community perception analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change on ecosystem service values

Rapid urbanization in developing countries is causing significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), which affect ecosystem service values (ESVs). This study investigates the impacts of LULC changes on ESV in the Gazipur city area of Bangladesh over a 30-years from 1991 to 2021. The analysis was conducted using satellite imagery from Landsat-5 TM (1991 and 2006) and Landsat-8 OLI-TIRS (2021), with a supervised classification approach to prepare LULC maps and the Benefit Transfer Method for ESV evaluation. We used the global coefficient values proposed by Costanza et al. 1 and the updated coefficients from Costanza et al. 2 , along with the local coefficient values modified by Hoque et al. 3 for ESV estimation. The results show significant LULC changes, particularly the rapid expansion of built-up areas, increasing from 3.70% in 1991 to 44.95% in 2021. Due to this expansion, vegetation cover and agricultural land decreased by 39% and 55%, respectively. The expansion of urban areas was the main reason for the 40% decrease in water bodies. These changes show that the study area is rapidly urbanizing and industrializing due to population growth and rising economic activity. The total ESV demonstrated a declining trend from 1991 to 2021, with overall reductions of 40.3%, 46.5%, and 40.9% estimated under all coefficient sets. The study found that waterbodies and agricultural land were mostly lost in terms of ESV which accounted for over 60% of the total ESV reduction. The coefficient of sensitivity (CS) was applied to address uncertainties in the valuation process and the results found the assessment to be robust based on all three coefficient sets. Community perception of Ecosystem Services (ES) by LULC category in the study area was measured using a four-point Likert scale method, and data were collected through direct field surveys using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. This approach provides an important community-based assessment that complements the biophysical ESV outcomes and helps contextualize changes in ES from the community’s perspectives. This study provides a robust framework to evaluate ES dynamics and support evidence-driven urban environmental management in rapidly urbanizing cities by integrating long-term LULC investigation, spatial ESV analysis, multiple valuation coefficient sets and local perceptions.