Climate vulnerability, democracy, and the politics of environmental policy stringency

Introduction Climate change is increasing countries’ exposure to environmental and socioeconomic pressures, yet it remains unclear whether climate vulnerability is associated with stricter environmental policies and under what political conditions this occurs. Methods This study examines the relationship between climate vulnerability and environmental policy stringency (EPS) across 40 countries from 1995 to 2020. It uses the OECD EPS Index, the ND-GAIN Climate Vulnerability Index, and the V-Dem Democracy Composite, and draws on Functional Institutionalism and Selectorate Theory to assess how institutional incentives shape policy tightening under climate stress. Results The findings show that greater climate vulnerability is associated with stricter environmental policies, while democracy has no consistent direct association with EPS. However, the interaction between climate vulnerability and democracy is significantly negative, indicating that democratic accountability may reduce governments’ tendency to tighten environmental policy in response to climate stress. Disaggregated analyses further show that market-based instruments do not respond significantly to vulnerability, whereas non-market and technology-support measures increase with vulnerability but weaken as democracy rises. Conclusion These findings suggest that governments do respond to climate stress, but through politically feasible forms of policy tightening shaped by institutional constraints. The results highlight how regime characteristics influence the translation of climate vulnerability into environmental policy and underscore the political limits of sustainability governance under intensifying climate pressure.