Integrated Multi-Criteria Analysis of Water Stress in Al Hoceima Province, Morocco

Water scarcity is becoming an increasingly serious environmental and socio-economic problem, particularly in semi-arid regions where water resources are increasingly stressed by climate variability and growing human pressure. Morocco is one of the most water-stressed countries in the Mediterranean region due to decreased rainfall, higher temperatures, and population growth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of water stress in Al Hoceima Province using an integrated framework that combines hydrological indicators and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. This locally focused assessment integrates hydro-climatic and demographic indicators to provide a better understanding of water stress dynamics in the province. Precipitation, temperature, runoff, evaporation, and population are considered. The Water Stress Index (WSI) and Falkenmark Index were used to determine water stress conditions. The weights of each criterion were assigned using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while annual water stress conditions were analyzed using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE). Additionally, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) was used to analyze long-term trends in water stress. Results indicate that water stress was consistently high throughout the study period and highly variable between years, primarily due to hydro-climatic conditions. Runoff and precipitation were the most important factors, while higher temperatures and evaporation exacerbated water stress. TOPSIS and PROMETHEE showed consistent identification of critical wet and dry years.