Assessment of urban vulnerability to earthquake hazards in Kermanshah Province, Western Iran

Earthquakes pose a serious threat to lives, infrastructure, and economies in seismically active regions. Kermanshah Province in western Iran, on the Alpine-Himalayan belt adjacent to the Main Zagros Fault, is a high-risk seismic zone. This study analyzes earthquake epicenters within a 50-km radius of 14 county-center cities from 1907 to 2023 and assesses urban vulnerability by integrating nine natural (total earthquake count, magnitude >6 events, slope, fault distance) and human-related parameters (population, density, compactness coefficient, open space, deteriorated fabric) using the Relative Weighted Coefficient method. Novelty includes interdisciplinary integration of neotectonics, seismology, geomorphology, and urban planning; comprehensive coverage of all 14 cities; introduction of the compactness coefficient linking city shape to earthquake risk; use of 12.5 m ALOS PALSAR DEM; expert consensus weighting; and combined analysis of total and high-magnitude (>6 Richter) events. Results reveal significant vulnerability variation across cities. Harsin (93.4), Javanrod (89.0), and Paveh (81.7) are the most vulnerable cities, while Sahneh (51.8), Islamabad (52.3), and Ghasreshirin (55.6) show the lowest vulnerability. Geostatistical analysis reveals significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I = 0.624, p < 0.01) with a High-High cluster comprising Harsin and Javanrod. These cities exhibit steep slopes, high population density, extensive deteriorated fabric, and limited open space. Urban regeneration should prioritize Harsin, Javanrod, and Paveh, focusing on deteriorated fabric reinforcement, public open space expansion, and revision of urban development patterns. This integrated framework offers a transferable methodology for seismic vulnerability assessment in other tectonically active regions along the Alpine-Himalayan belt.