Water transfers amidst climate change: assessing the multidimensional impacts of inter-basin water transfer in China under future climate scenarios

Graphical abstract showing a framework for evaluating the environmental, economic, and social impacts of inter-basin water transfers in China under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. alt text of Graphical Abstract: Graphical abstract showing a framework for evaluating the environmental, economic, and social impacts of inter-basin water transfers in China under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects have been implemented across the globe to mitigate water shortages by reallocating water resources across time and space. The environmental, economic, and social impacts arising from the inherent complexities of IBWT projects remain insufficiently explored under the effects of climate change. This study assessed the positive and negative impacts of China's IBWT network for the 2025–2099 period under multiple future climate scenarios. The results revealed that IBWT is projected to enhance the environmental flow conditions in 21 of the 38 recipient sub-basins under low-emission scenarios. Also, IBWT will potentially generate substantial economic opportunity benefits and provide the water supply for nearly 500 million people annually. However, under challenging scenarios with low water availability, some source sub-basins could face low environmental flow conditions and high socio-economic costs following water transfer. IBWT impacts are expected to be spatially heterogeneous, with the North China Plain gaining the greater benefits. Moreover, IBWT in China may introduce distributional inequalities of environmental, economic, and social impacts between source and recipient sub-basins. Our results highlight the multidimensional impacts of IBWT across future climate scenarios, underlining the need for continued adjustment of national water diversion guidelines and climate change mitigation in China.