Health-centered multicriteria evaluation of heating systems for sustainable indoor comfort

This study develops a health-centered, screening-level multicriteria framework for evaluating residential and small-building heating technologies during heating-season operation.The framework addresses a key methodological limitation by distinguishing thermal sources—boilers, biomass appliances, direct electric resistance, air-source heat pumps, ground-source heat pumps, and solar thermal systems—from heat-delivery modes, including forced-air systems, fan coils, hydronic radiators, radiant floors, and radiant ceilings. This distinction is necessary because source-related emissions, costs, and indirect health burdens differ from delivery-related effects on air velocity, mean radiant temperature, pollutant dispersion, ventilation interaction, acoustic disturbance, and control stability. A multicriteria decision analysis based on PROMETHEE II was implemented using criteria for greenhouse-gas emissions, indirect health burden, direct indoor exposure, levelized cost of heat, regional availability, and regulatory compatibility. The framework incorporates regional electricity mixes, a 20-year electricity-scenario sensitivity, and a winter-peak marginal electricity sensitivity. DALY-based health damage was not calculated in the present screening-level assessment; it is identified as a recommended endpoint for future full LCIA studies where regional characterization factors and inventory data are available. The analysis shows that no heating technology is universally preferable. Heat-pump configurations may become favorable when seasonal performance is high, electricity has low operational emissions, and delivery design avoids draft, noise, and uneven temperatures; however, full LCIA should also account for technology-specific upstream burdens, including nuclear fuel cycle, mining, fuel processing, waste management, infrastructure, and grid-integration impacts where relevant. The framework is intended for scenario-specific screening, not as a substitute for full building-level LCA, dynamic simulation, project-specific cost analysis, or local health-impact assessment.Graphical abstract is mandatory for publication in this journal. Please provide the graphical abstract.I am attaching it.