Climate-induced displacement and household food insecurity in Somalia: the role of drought, water access, and environmental shocks

Despite compounding drought and conflict in Somalia, no household-level study has jointly examined displacement, drought, and water access as determinants of food insecurity. Using the Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey 2022 (6,441 households, including 111 internally displaced person [IDP] households with a recorded displacement cause), we estimated survey-weighted linear, ordered, and binary logit/probit models of a 7-item FIES-based food insecurity scale, controlling for environmental conditions, household characteristics, and region fixed effects (region-clustered standard errors). IDP households scored 1.63 points higher than non-IDP households on the FIES scale (0.98 after controls and fixed effects; both p < 0.01). IDP households had 3.76 times the odds of moderate-to-severe food insecurity (95% CI 2.18–6.51), a 30.6-percentage-point higher probability. Drought- and conflict-displaced households showed statistically indistinguishable increases. Clean cooking fuel was the strongest protective factor (odds ratio 0.25–0.30); improved water access was protective only after region fixed effects and among rural households. The IDP penalty was concentrated in urban areas. Displacement worsens food insecurity regardless of cause, challenging frameworks that treat climate displacement as secondary to conflict. Clean cooking fuel, rural water infrastructure, and urban IDP settlement support are actionable levers. Findings are cross-sectional associations, not causal effects.