Assessing Cultural Heritage-Led Urban Regeneration Potential Through a Two-Stage Multi-Criteria Spatial Framework: Evidence from Fujian Province, China

Cultural heritage is widely recognized as a critical resource for urban regeneration and sustainable regional development, yet its value realization depends on adequate supporting conditions. While existing studies have examined the spatial distribution of heritage resources, frameworks that jointly address resource endowments and regional support capacities remain scarce. This study constructs a two-dimensional evaluation system comprising Cultural Heritage Value (CHV) and Heritage Regeneration Support Capacity (HRSC), and proposes a two-stage CRITIC method. An empirical analysis is conducted across 84 county-level units in Fujian Province, integrating five categories of cultural heritage data and POI-based urban functional data. The CRITIC method is applied separately within CHV and HRSC, followed by a second-stage weighting to calculate the Cultural Heritage-led Urban Regeneration Potential Index (CHURPI). Spatial patterns are examined through kernel density estimation, typology classification, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Four key findings emerge. First, the five heritage categories exhibited differentiated spatial clustering, supporting the need for multi-type integrated assessment. Second, high-CHV counties were widely distributed across coastal and mountainous areas, whereas high-HRSC counties were concentrated in core metropolitan areas such as Fuzhou and Xiamen, indicating a notable spatial mismatch between heritage endowment and support capacity. Third, only 8.3% of counties were classified as high-potential, mainly clustered in the northeast, with a global Moran’s I of 0.161 (p < 0.001) indicating a weak-to-moderate but statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Fourth, traditional village density (0.386) and functional diversity (0.509) received the highest weights within CHV and HRSC, respectively. These weights indicate that the two indicators are the most information-rich and least redundant within the selected indicator system, rather than universally the most important drivers of heritage-led regeneration. With this caveat, the results are consistent with the interpretation that traditional settlements serve as primary heritage carriers in Fujian and that diversified functional environments may be more conducive to heritage value translation than single-type facility provision. The framework offers an operational pathway for identifying heritage-led regeneration potential and supporting differentiated cultural resource allocation.