What Happens When Men Don’t Migrate? Partnership and Fertility in a Migrant Sending Country

An unprecedented decline in net migration increased the number of young men in Mexico, but also reduced their economic prospects. Using an instrumental variable approach, we identify changes in net migration uncorrelated with local conditions. The higher presence of men increases partnership in the form of cohabitation and not marriage. Fertility also increases, but largely in cohabiting couples and not in married ones. The decision to marry is impacted more by economic prospects, but for childbearing, the presence of a male partner in the household is enough to offset the greater economic uncertainty.