Rebuilding‐Time Based Reference Points: A Forward‐Looking Risk‐Equivalent Framework for Fisheries Management

Biomass‐based reference points are used to define stock status and set sustainable exploitation levels. Risks should be equivalent across stocks, regardless of the data and knowledge available to assess them by maintaining comparable probabilities of achieving targets and avoiding limits across agreed time scales. This study introduces , the lowest biomass from which a stock can rebuild to a target within an agreed time‐frame under a specified fishing scenario, and , the time required to rebuild from a given state. Once (or an equivalent biomass threshold), , and a harvest control rule defining are agreed, is a random variable with a probability distribution. can serve as a limit or a trigger in harvest control rules. Using age‐structured projections for 82 Northeast Atlantic stocks, we summarise the relationship between and life‐history covariates (, steepness) across stock–recruitment scenarios. Recovery is faster for stocks with higher per capita productivity (i.e., ) and steepness, with little difference between Beverton–Holt and Ricker forms once these characteristics are accounted for. The approach shifts emphasis from recruitment impairment to rebuilding capacity, makes the trade‐off with yield during rebuilding explicit, and provides a common currency for risk‐equivalent advice across assessment models and data tiers.