Exploring dynamic reference points for a short-lived, highly variable species under future climate

Fish stock recruitment can be highly variable and may change under changing climate. The use of time-varying reference points (e.g., dynamic B 0 ), compared with traditional “static” (fixed) reference points, has increasingly been debated. Few studies have focussed on short-lived, highly variable stocks for which factors other than fishing influence stock productivity. Our Management Strategy Evaluation framework included models with either a stock-climate or catchability-climate relationship for a highly variable prawn ( Penaeus indicus). We tested three different harvest control rules (HCRs) based on static and dynamic reference levels under three climate scenarios representing high, intermediate, and low stock productivity. Performance of HCRs was similar if stock productivity exhibited no trend or was cyclical. However, differences between HCRs were pronounced if productivity declined with the dynamic B 0 HCR, on average, maintaining higher catches and reducing fishery closure, but at the risk of decreasing spawning stock biomass and breaching traditional limit reference levels. Further critical valuation of dynamic B 0 is therefore recommended before uptake to address climate-related changes in stock productivity, even for species strongly influenced by climate.