The Strategic Reassessment of the Middle Corridor: Transforming the Geopolitics of Connectivity in Eurasia after 2022

The war in Ukraine, sanctions imposed on Russia, growing concerns over supply-chain security, and the need to diversify Europe-Asia connectivity have given the Middle Corridor renewed strategic significance. Since 2022, political and economic interest in this route has increased substantially. Yet its multimodal structure, the Caspian Sea crossing, multiple border crossings, and infrastructure constraints continue to limit its commercial attractiveness and competitiveness. This paper examines the strategic reassessment of the Middle Corridor in the context of the transformation of Eurasian connectivity and evaluates the extent to which its rising political importance corresponds to its actual economic and logistical capabilities. The paper uses the geopolitics of connectivity as a limited analytical framework that brings together geopolitical, geoeconomic, and connectivity-based approaches without treating it as a fully developed standalone theory. The paper argues that the present significance of the Middle Corridor lies less in its ability to replace the Northern Corridor or maritime routes than in its function as an instrument of diversification. At the same time, its long-term viability depends not only on geopolitical demand, but also on the growth of regional trade, infrastructure investment, digitalization, institutional coordination, and the development of a more self-sustaining economic ecosystem along the route. The paper therefore distinguishes between geopolitical demand and commercial maturity, and between geographic potential and the capacity to convert location into durable connectivity value.