Landlocked and sanction-locked: assessing Central Asia’s transport dilemma

Central Asian countries and their international partners have attempted to transform the region from a landlocked area with limited global connectivity into a transit hub. Despite major international initiatives like the Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA) and the Belt and Road Initiative, this goal remains unachieved. This paper analyses the reasons for this failure, finding that the region’s landlocked geography is exacerbated by sanctions and geopolitical tensions, creating a state of sanction-lockedness. This convergence constrains trade access and threatens economic stability by disrupting supply chains through Russia. Expert interviews indicate that the economically rational Northern Route is now strategically compromised. Consequently, the development of alternative corridors, particularly the Middle Corridor, is no longer a matter of cost-effectiveness but a strategic imperative for resilience. This research introduces the concept of the priority of strategic reliability, concluding that building resilience against geopolitical shocks now overrides traditional economic rationality, thereby driving regional transport cooperation.