Visions, narratives and numbers: How roadmapping enables industrial transformation toward decarbonisation

The transformation to a low-carbon industry requires different actors to work together and align their strategies. To support this process, policy and industry in many European countries have been driving the development of industry technology roadmaps at sectoral and national levels. However, limited attention has been paid to how visions, narratives and quantitative modelling work together within roadmapping to enable alignment and transformation across organisational, industry and policy levels. We examine industry technology roadmaps in six selected European countries, using secondary material, survey responses and two focus groups. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework that integrates the design and process elements considered important for roadmap development and implementation, complemented by the requirements for promoting industrial transformation rooted in the literature on socio-technical change. While most roadmaps included sophisticated modelling techniques and quantified scenarios, the study shows that a well-articulated narrative is equally important in mobilising stakeholders toward long-term industrial decarbonisation goals. In addition, the case studies illustrate that strategic planning processes of industrial companies benefit from having a forum to assess the future potential of specific technologies with other companies and along the value chain, thereby helping them manage uncertainty in investment decisions.