Green Transitions in Coal-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech National Energy and Climate Plan

This paper examines the economy-wide implications of selected measures from the Czech Republic’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan. A forward-looking hybrid computable general equilibrium model integrates prescribed electricity-generation pathways with endogenous vehicle choice. Under additional measures, real GDP is 0.5% below the existing-policy scenario in 2030; by 2050, GDP is 1.7% lower and direct emissions are 43.2% lower. Early GDP effects reflect investment responses to future conditions; rising energy costs become more important later. The disproportionate emissions response reflects abatement from the prescribed electricity mix and endogenous reductions in non-power fossil-fuel use, rather than a contraction in economic activity.