Integrated Spatial and Diurnal Assessment of Wind Energy Potential Using Multi-Height Weibull Modeling in Central and Southern Iraq: A 2023 Case Study

This study presents a spatial and diurnal assessment of wind energy resources in central and southern Iraq, using hourly wind speed data for the year 2023 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis (0.25° × 0.25° horizontal resolution) for a representative day per station. Wind behavior was characterized across a set of provinces selected to represent a range of climatic, topographic and surface conditions (desert, urban, riverine and coastal). The Weibull probability function was used to model wind speed frequency distributions, and wind power density (WPD) was evaluated at 10, 50 and 100 m to assess vertical and diurnal variability. Significant spatial variability in wind characteristics throughout the study region is revealed by the analysis. The western and southern parts of the country usually have higher wind speed and WPD values, while the central and eastern parts usually have lower values. The shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution vary significantly across different regions. This means that the wind regime’s energy and stability are different at each station. Even though the average wind speeds are the same, these differences are still there. This shows how important it is to look at data in terms of distribution. Vertical profiling shows that the amount of wind power always goes up as you go higher. The values are much higher at 100 m than they are near the surface. The temporal evaluation shows that wind energy and wind speed are not directly related, and that WPD changes a lot during the day. The results show us how to find places with good wind energy conditions and how important it is to use statistical modeling, height-dependent assessment, and high-resolution temporal analysis together to get an accurate picture of wind resources in dry and semi-arid areas.